Daily Forex Analysis – February 9, 2010

Daily Forex Analysis – February 9, 2010

USDCHF Analysis.
Being contained by the upper border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, USDCHF pulls back from 1.0794, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed. Sideways movement is more likely be seen later today and bottom of the channel would be tested by the end of the sideways movement. However, as long as the channel support holds, the price action from 1.0794 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.0132, one more rise towards 1.0900 is possible after consolidation.

20100209_usdchf_1 

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD bounces from the bottom of the falling price channel, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom is being formed at 1.3585 on 4-hour chart. Move towards the upper border of the channel is expected later today. However, the bounce from 1.3585 is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579, one more fall towards 1.3400 area is still possible after consolidation.

 20100209_eurusd_1

GBPUSD Analysis.
After touching the lower border of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, GBPUSD bounces from 1.5534 level. A short term cycle bottom is being formed. Sideways movement could be seen later today. Resistance is at the top of the price channel. As long as the channel resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and another fall towards 1.5400-1.5500 area is still possible after consolidation.

20100209_gbpusd_1

 

USDCAD Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.0224 and the fall from 1.0779 is more likely consolidation of uptrend. One more rise towards 1.1200 area is expected after consolidation. Key support is now located at 1.0545, only fall below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0224 has completed.

 20100209_usdcad_1

USDJPY Analysis.
After a sharp drop from 91.27, USDJPY traded in a narrow range above 88.57. However, the rang trading is treated as minor consolidation of downtrend from 93.75, as long as the channel resistance holds, one more fall towards 88.00 area is still possible after consolidation.

 20100209_usdjpy_1

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 0.8577 level on 4-hour chart. Bounce towards the falling trend line is expected in a couple of day, a clear break above the trend line resistance could conform the cycle bottom and indicate that the fall from 0.9327 has completed.

 

 

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 and is filed under Forex, Forex Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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10 Responses to “Daily Forex Analysis – February 9, 2010”

  1. Kurtis Ingran on February 21st, 2010 at 3:31 am

    Reporting is the scorecard and analysis explains to you what you can do superior next time. We see quite a few businesses with market share that are falling because they are reacting to the erroneous facts. This paradigm has developed lately because of more specified, yet summarized data is now being required to make wise choices.- quoted from metwell.com

  2. Darvas on February 21st, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    Just wondering if any active traders are starting to trade the ETFs? After reading the book by Larry Connors – High Probability ETF Trading – I switched and I would say overall my results have improved but there are fewer trading opportunities because of the small number of ETFs he writes about. ETFs seem to be a little less erratic in their price movement so that’s good but some of them have poor results using the systems he describes in the book.

  3. Caliber FX Pro on February 22nd, 2010 at 11:00 am

    Every time I see blogs as good as this I KNOW I should stop surfing and start working on mine!

  4. Benito Salle on March 17th, 2010 at 5:59 pm

    I have come across a bunch of stuff related to trading in online books and posts and a lot of it is clearly conflicting. It’s so tricky to identify trustworthy information that’s based on actual truth and not just some dude’s opinion.

  5. Edmundo Avie on March 23rd, 2010 at 4:06 pm

    It’s getting more and more difficult to separate the real info from the noise, but I see you’ve got some very helpful info here. Trading is risky enough without being misguided by false experts. Thank you for a really informative site!

  6. Danuta Vertiz on March 27th, 2010 at 3:01 am

    In my experience, it is always good to put these Forex Tips infront of you, as a reminder:
    - Trade with the trend.
    - Do NOT Forget ” Stop Losses ”
    - This is very important, no emotions in trading
    - First try Forex with a demo account
    - Do your research before entering a position
    - Choose the right day to trade I hope, it helps.

    I hope you find it useful.

  7. Richard Brandner on April 14th, 2010 at 11:03 pm

    I love this blog. Could tell me how I could subscribing with it.

  8. Darvas method on April 17th, 2010 at 3:10 pm

    I can’t remember where I read this but is it true that someone checked into Darvas and his accounts he really didn’t make as much money as he claimed in his book? I wish I could remember where I read it but if it is true does that invalidate his method?

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U.S. was not concerned about the dollar

Recently I have noticed that the U.S. was not concerned about the dollar. If you look at the fiscal and monetary policy, it is indeed a remarkable degree of consistency. Both reflect a clear conditions for a strong currency can be ignored.

This may seem ridiculous, given the impressive performance of the dollar too late. It is estimated at nearly all major world currencies, and more on a trade weighted basis. Note that this increase only from the crisis (allegedly) in Europe. He speaks not speak of a certain strength of the dollar, but weakness in other currencies. In fact, as I said in this week (“U.S. Dollar wrote Paradigm Shift”), because investors look at fundamentals, the dollar has suffered.

Without drilling through the nuts and bolts of American fiscal policy, said the U.S. budget deficit is $ 1,000,000,000,000 unthinkable for the second consecutive year at the border. The national debt is much faster than GDP growth and maintenance expensive for a growing share of the budget. To have stagnated double-dip recession looming tax now, no matter what happens to spend. In short, is the deficit of the United states a reality for the foreseeable future.

Monetary policy is equally devastating. The Fed has engaged in to maintain low interest rates and economic recovery. $ 2,000,000,000,000 newly invented money flowing into the system, and it is unclear when they run out. There are inflation hawks on the Board of Governors of the Fed, but they have no power, a change in the short-term effects of monetary policy.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), G20, and a pair of economists, including alarm calls were, that such a stupid policy, and inexcusable. According to the BIS, “the interest rate increases has a very low cash costs over time. Experience shows that the exceptionally low risk rating greater financial commitment, to delay the efficiency and induce a cloud of balance adjustments.”

In short, there is a clear consensus that a number of years of budget deficits and low prices, persistent, and at worst catastrophic. From the perspective of the foreign exchange markets, the interest rates in the short term, and what is important for the inflation rate in the long term. The dollar is at a disadvantage on both fronts. Interest rates are currently rising close to 0% – the lowest in the world – and lose monetary policy and high public debt, the probability of inflation in the wrong perspective.

Given this performance, the only logical conclusion that the dollar is simply no role in formulating the decision of the government and the central bank, the decision is. Since the start of the credit crisis, it was a luxury that could be awarded as a haven investment paid in the United States. If / when varying the disappearance of the crisis, that capital can, as investors are forced to look at the base.